With shutdown in Delhi, film trade faces an uncertain future again

Just as the film industry and audiences were beginning to enjoy a return to normalcy, they have hit another speed bump. The Delhi state government's decision to shut down theatres and cinema halls in view of growing numbers of COVID-19 cases is bringing back memories of the pandemic-induced lockdowns in 2020 and 2021.

The first casualty of the decision has been the Shahid Kapoor-led film Jersey, which was scheduled to arrive in theatres on 31 December. The makers have decided to postpone the film's release indefinitely in view of the growing threat from the omicron variant.

The producers sent out a message confirming the decision: 'In view of the current circumstances and new COVID guidelines, we have decided to postpone the theatrical release of our film Jersey. We have received immense love from you all so far and want to thank you all for everything. Until then everyone please stay safe and healthy, and wishing you all the best for the new year ahead!! Team Jersey! (sic)'

The decision is not surprising, but it is certainly cause for worry for distributors and exhibitors who were only starting to see their businesses limp back to a semblance of normalcy.

Abrar Memon, a distributor and exhibitor in the Pune region of Maharashtra, said, "There is a little concern. We all are worried. The lockdown in Delhi has sent the wrong message to all state governments. We are discussing this amongst our fraternity. There are election rallies across several states, but theatres are the first to be shut down. It is unfair with our industry."

Responding to the Delhi government's decision, Kamal Gianchandani, president of the Multiplex Association of India, said in a statement, "Delhi government's decision to shut down cinemas while enforcing the 'yellow' alert of the graded response action plan (GRAP) has caused massive uncertainty and could lead to irreparable damage for the Indian film industry. The period since March 2020 is undeniably the most challenging faced by Indian cinemas in their long history."

Referring to the Maharashtra government's directive to allow only vaccinated people into theatres and follow strict physical-distancing and sanitization protocols, Gianchandani said, "Instead of closing cinemas, we would urge the Delhi government to consider introducing 'double vaccination requirement' to enter cinemas, as is the case in some other states (including Maharashtra). Alternatively, the seating capacity restriction of 50% can be reintroduced. We call on the government to recognize the unique social, cultural and economic value of the Indian film industry and to provide the support it so desperately needs to survive this unprecedented period."

Trade analyst Atul Mohan agreed that Delhi's decision could propel other states to follow suit. He said, "With Delhi shut down, in maybe a couple of days, a couple of more states will follow suit. Definitely it will happen. Every time one state announces, it sets off a chain reaction. They seem to think cinema halls are the most dangerous places."

For now, theatres in Maharashtra continue to function at 50% occupancy with only fully vaccinated viewers allowed in.

Manoj Desai, executive director, Gaiety Galaxy cinemas, told Cinestaan.com that Delhi's decision had set the industry back. "83 has not done as well as expected," Desai said. "Pushpa: The Rise is faring much better. But the Delhi shutdown is problematic. It means Jersey has now been postponed. The side-effects are slowly starting to be seen, but the rest we will know by the evening if the chief minister of Maharashtra takes any decision."

Already, the restriction on people gathering beyond 9pm in Maharashtra could result in the number of shows being limited. The more worrying aspect is the growing number of COVID-19 cases in Mumbai and Maharashtra. As of today (29 December) the state reported over 2,000 fresh cases, with 161 of them being of the omicron variant. There have been 22 deaths.

For the cinema business, the government's decision to clamp down on theatres while allowing some leeway to restaurants and malls feels unfair. Delhi, for instance, continues to allow odd-even functioning of shops in malls and marketplaces.

Atul Mohan said, "There is also a psychological effect. The first decision by the government is to shut cinema halls. This puts a thought in the mind of the audience and the common man that this is a dangerous place. It is psychological fear. Now, to regain those footfalls will be difficult."

Pune exhibitor Memon and Mumbai exhibitor Desai pointed out that such decisions have economic repercussions as well. With overheads, electricity charges and staff to be paid, theatre owners and distributors can scarcely afford to down shutters again after two years of intermittent work. Memon emphasized that several single-screen theatres have already shut down for good, while a number of employees have moved on to other occupations.

"It is unlikely that we will get skilled staff again," he said. "They will not want to come back to work for cinema any more since they never got support."

The effect on the box office is more tangible. Kabir Khan's 83 has had an underwhelming opening with Rs57 crore nett collected over the first five days. The film's collections have been reducing with each day, with Tuesday registering only Rs6 crore.

According to trade website BoxOfficeIndia.com, with the absence of the Delhi region, collections could dip a further 10%. This means the film will struggle to touch the Rs70 crore mark, which is important for a project with such a huge budget. With a cost of production of about Rs200 crore, 83 could well struggle to break even.

By contrast, Pushpa: The Rise and Spiderman: No Way Home have done good business, with the latter inching towards a collection of Rs200 crore nett. The Allu Arjun film has already earned close to Rs40 crore in the Hindi belt, surpassing all expectations.

Atul Mohan said, "Things were looking up. Sooryavanshi did Rs200 crore. Spiderman did Rs179 crore. Pushpa, unexpectedly, had done well in the Hindi belt. It earned close to Rs40 crore. That is the combined average business of films like Satyameva Jayate 2 (2021), Chandigarh Kare Aashiqui (2021) and Antim: The Final Truth (2021). That is exceptional."

Yet, the decision to withdraw Jersey, just four days before its scheduled release, has larger implications. "When a big movie like this takes such a decision, others start thinking along the same lines, to reconsider. Then it becomes a game of wait and watch," Atul Mohan said.

The postponement could trigger a domino effect which might spill into the schedule for releases next year. With producers and filmmakers keen to avoid direct clashes, the release dates of a few films are bound to be rescheduled depending on Jersey's revised schedule.

Memon agreed: "Definitely this decision is going to affect the releases in January. RRR and Prithviraj (2022) are two big movies scheduled in January. If the Delhi government does not take back its decision, there will be further postponements."

As of now, filmmaker SS Rajamouli has confirmed that RRR will be released as scheduled on 7 January. This could be because the film's major target demographic is the South. Despite the presence of Ajay Devgn, and Alia Bhatt, the film is a flagship Rajamouli enterprise with NTR Jr and Ram Charan in the lead.

The bigger worry is whether other states will follow Delhi's lead. If that were to happen. cinema may slump again. For an industry desperate for a reprieve, this feels like déjà vu.